Since late September, a string of ship attacks have taken place in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters, with mounting casualties. Risks have spread to the maritime areas of neighbouring countries including Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. Meanwhile, oil exports of some Gulf states have gradually recovered, while confrontations between the United States and Iran over maritime blockades and waterway control persist. Compared with previous incidents, what new features do the ongoing ship attacks show? Why have these attacks escalated? What impacts will they bring?

New Features of the Ship Attacks

The number of recent ship attacks has hit a new high. Reuters reported on October 7 that between September 28 and October 5, there were at least 12 attacks on tankers carrying crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) near the Strait of Hormuz, marking the highest weekly figure since the outbreak of US-Israel-Iran tensions in late February.

Casualties have once again drawn attention. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) said an oil tanker was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on October 5, leaving 12 crew members injured. India stated on the 11th that two merchant vessels carrying Indian crew came under attack in relevant waters on the same day. One of the tankers was struck by a drone, and two Indian crew members went missing.

Attack risks are spreading to waters beyond the strait. On October 7, an oil tanker was hit by multiple projectiles in waters north of Qatar, with reports of casualties. UK-based maritime analytics firm Windward noted that this was the first ship attack outside the Strait of Hormuz since September 9. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on October 11 that an oil tanker was attacked near the anchorage of Sohar, Oman, extending ship-attack risks further beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Why Have the Ship Attacks Escalated?

First, the game between the United States and Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz keeps intensifying. The strait serves as a vital global energy shipping lane and a key bargaining chip in the current US-Iran standoff. After tensions flared, Iran imposed restrictions on navigation through the strait. The United States, in turn, enforced a maritime blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports and provided military assistance to facilitate passage for some merchant ships, seeking to break Iran’s curbs on shipping in the strait.

Analysts say Gulf countries have adopted pipeline transport, ship-to-ship transfers and alternative shipping routes, leading to a gradual recovery in oil shipments. This may have weakened the effectiveness of Iran’s pressure tactics by restricting strait navigation. Against this backdrop, sustained pressure on merchant vessels to disrupt shipping recovery may become one of Iran’s means to maintain maritime influence and gain negotiating leverage. The US-led Combined Maritime Information Center pointed out that recent operations show Iran is seeking to demonstrate its presence in key waterways and keep exerting pressure on passing ships.

In addition, the mutual blockade and counter-blockade actions between the US and Iran have aggravated maritime standoffs. US Central Command said on October 10 that US forces disabled a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. Washington claimed the vessel had departed from an Iranian port and attempted to break the US maritime blockade. Iran warned certain merchant ships against entering routes it deems “unauthorised”, stating that vessels with navigation and identification systems turned off would be regarded as “hostile targets”.

What Impacts Will the Ship Attacks Generate?

First, the attacks directly endanger seafarers’ lives and disrupt international navigation. The International Maritime Organization has repeatedly stated that thousands of crew members have faced persistent safety risks in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters since the outbreak of tensions. The spread of attacks to waters around the strait means risks may affect more merchant ships, anchorages and ports, further threatening crew safety and maritime shipping security.

Second, rising shipping costs may spill over into energy markets and supply chains. Data from Kpler showed that in the final week of September, the average daily oil flow in the Middle East recovered to roughly 92% of pre-conflict baseline levels. However, Reuters reported on the 11th that amid continuous tanker attacks, the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to the lowest level in more than two months.

According to Windward, freight costs for crude oil shipped from the Gulf now account for over 25% to 30% of total costs, compared with a normal share of 1% to 3%. Analysts warned that if attacks persist, available tankers shrink or alternative routes are disrupted, transportation costs and supply-chain pressures could climb further.

Moreover, ship attacks may exacerbate regional security polarisation. The spread of attack risks to waters near Qatar, the UAE and Oman means maritime security is no longer merely an issue of strait navigation, and places extra pressure on neighbouring states.

Source: Xinhua News Agency